The Five-on-Five Paradox: Can Underdogs Really Win the Stanley Cup?
Here's a thought that might surprise you: in the high-stakes world of the NHL, where every goal counts, the majority of playoff games—over 80 percent—are played at five-on-five. What's even more intriguing is that roughly two out of every three playoff goals are scored in these even-strength situations. This raises a deeper question: can a team with mediocre five-on-five performance still compete for the Stanley Cup?
The Conventional Wisdom: Five-on-Five Dominance Matters
Personally, I think the conventional wisdom holds a lot of truth. Historically, Stanley Cup champions tend to be elite five-on-five teams. Since 2007-08, all but one Cup winner dominated these minutes during the regular season. The exception? The 2018 Washington Capitals, who managed to score and save enough to overcome their shortcomings.
What makes this particularly fascinating is the stark contrast in playoff success for teams with negative goal differentials. In the last 17 years, 20 out of 25 teams with negative differentials were eliminated in the first round. This suggests that while power plays and physicality are important, five-on-five performance is the backbone of a championship run.
The Outliers: When Mediocrity Meets Opportunity
But here’s where it gets interesting: since 2008, 70 teams have qualified for the playoffs despite falling below the break-even mark in five-on-five expected goals. Of those, nine went on to reach at least the conference finals. Teams like the 2017 Ottawa Senators and the 2022 New York Rangers prove that it’s possible to defy the odds.
What many people don’t realize is that these outliers often rely on a combination of factors: exceptional goaltending, underdog mentality, and timely improvements. For instance, the 2012 Arizona Coyotes rode Mike Smith’s stellar performance, while the 2020 New York Islanders tightened their defense under Barry Trotz’s leadership.
The Role of Goaltending and Team Dynamics
In my opinion, goaltending is the great equalizer in the playoffs. Igor Shesterkin’s performance for the Rangers in 2022 and 2024 is a prime example. He saved a combined 39 goals above expected in 36 playoff games, showcasing how a single player can elevate a team’s chances.
But goaltending alone isn’t enough. Teams like the 2018 Capitals made across-the-board improvements during the playoffs, proving that adaptability is key. This raises a deeper question: can teams like the 2026 Boston Bruins or Anaheim Ducks replicate this kind of transformation?
The Current Landscape: Who’s in and Who’s Out?
If you take a step back and think about it, this season’s playoff picture is full of intriguing storylines. The Bruins, with a 46 percent xG rate, are a red flag waiting to happen. Yet, Jeremy Swayman’s Vezina-caliber play and David Pastrnak’s scoring prowess could make them an outlier.
On the other hand, the Buffalo Sabres have been steadily improving, while the Ottawa Senators are dominating five-on-five play since the Olympic break. A detail that I find especially interesting is the Senators’ forecheck, which has been a game-changer, allowing them to suppress shots more effectively than any other team in the league.
The Future: Trends and Implications
What this really suggests is that while five-on-five dominance is the safest path to the Stanley Cup, it’s not the only one. Teams like the 2017 Penguins and 2019 Blues showed that making the most of limited chances and playing stingy defense can also lead to success.
From my perspective, the NHL is becoming increasingly unpredictable. Coaches like Rick Bowness in Columbus are proving that targeted improvements in five-on-five play can turn a team’s season around. Meanwhile, young stars like Macklin Celebrini are challenging the notion that veteran-heavy teams are the only ones capable of deep playoff runs.
Final Thoughts
In the end, the Stanley Cup playoffs are a testament to the unpredictability of hockey. While five-on-five dominance remains the gold standard, the occasional outlier reminds us that anything can happen. Personally, I think the most exciting aspect of this is the psychological and cultural dynamics at play—the underdog mentality, the pressure to perform, and the sheer will to win.
So, can a mediocre five-on-five team win the Stanley Cup? It’s unlikely, but not impossible. And that’s what makes the NHL playoffs so captivating.
